Could This Be the Spark?

I see a couple of things have happened in Iraq that could cause the Vigaro to hit the Mixmaster.

First, the judge in charge of trying Saddam has been assassinated. He was under joint US and Iraqi military protection, so at the moment it's not clear how he was gotten to or by who. (Note: This has since been changed - it was an investigating judge, not the lead judge as first reported. Thanks, Chad)

Now there's been an anti-terrorism demonstration in Hillah, the site of yesterday's massive car bomb. Thousands have taken to the streets saying they've had enough. This article also goes into how the authorities there have stopped some massive funeral ceremonies because they were afraid they would be targets for homicide bombers.

Now, so far the Shi'ia have been pretty well-behaved. Remarkably so when you look at the preponderence of shit that they've had to eat in order to help see the country out of the 10th century. How much longer do you think it's going to last? When is Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani either going to lose control over his people or he finally has a gutful himself and turns his troops loose on the "insurgents"?

How long do you think it would take them to clean the country out? And what are the odds that most of Anbar Province becomes a large ghost town?